Post-Mortem: Brexit's Impact on the UK Real Estate Market

Analysts predicted that 2016’s Brexit referendum would devastate the UK’s property market. Almost eight years in, how is it faring?

This week’s Thesis Driven is a guest letter by Mattis Dougray. It analyzes the impact of Brexit on the UK real estate market.

The Brexit referendum led to dire predictions of the future of the UK real estate market. Prognostications of foreign capital flight, empty offices, and dramatic home price declines dominated headlines surrounding the country’s exit from the EU common market.

As we step into 2024, it's an opportune moment for a retrospective look at Brexit's impact on UK real estate. In this analysis, we will explore the UK real estate industry’s journey through the challenges brought by Brexit while considering its global position. We'll dive into: 

• Shifts in investor interest in the UK’s real estate market since 2016; 

• The loss of the single market and resulting disruptions in supply;

• Differential impacts across London and other UK regions;

• Residential demand and its impact on home prices;

• The office sector’s surprising performance after the dual punches of Brexit and COVID-19.