Six Themes We're Watching in 2025

Trump, AVs, data centers, alternative sectors, distress, and more

As we look ahead to 2025, I’ll give the same caveat I gave last year: nobody can predict the future. If I knew were interest rates were headed, I’d be trading bonds, not writing a Substack newsletter.

That said, looking back on our key themes for 2024, I’m pretty happy with how they landed: of the six, three were spot on (1, 2, and 5) while the other three were directionally correct but with less of a broader impact than we believed they would.

Maybe I should trade bonds.

Without further ado, here are the six key themes and questions I’m watching closely as we kick off 2025:

1. Will Trump’s plans materialize?

As I wrote prior to the election, Trump’s stated plans—if put into effect—would have a devastating impact on the real estate industry. While some in the real estate community have expressed concern about Trump’s proposed tariffs, his trade policy is third down the list of the policies most likely to hit the real estate industry hard.